On Tuesday, September 15, 2020, the Afghan Institute for Strategic Studies (AISS), launched its recent research paper titled “Prospects and Economic Priorities for a Durable Peace in Afghanistan”. The launching ceremony was accompanied by an online discussion with Dr. Nematullah Bizhan, lecturer at the Australian National University and AISS research fellow; Dr. Mustafa Mastoor, Minister of Economy of Afghanistan; Ambassador Staffan de Mistura, former UNSG Special Representative/Envoy in Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria; Interpeace Board; Naheed Sarabi, former deputy Finance Minister of Afghanistan. The panel was moderated by Hiba Qasas, head of Secretariat, Principles for Inclusive Peace Initiative, and concluding remarks by Scott M. Weber, president of Interpeace, Geneva, Switzerland.
Dr. Nematullah Bizhan pointed out that the trajectory from war to peace will be far more difficult than the trajectory from peace to war. Afghanistan needs to sustain gains made, improve public services, manage the reintegration of ex-combatants, and revive the economy. He added that we need a new political and economic order that allows people to become involved in the economy in an inclusive manner, so that they are able to challenge the current elite for political and economic participation. Dr. Bizhan said " The informal economy is huge, so can’t be taxed. The problem is that Taliban uses economic means to sustain support. We need to find alternative livelihoods to opium cultivation, so that people have economic alternatives".
Dr. Mustafa Mastoor mentioned that 65% of Afghanistan's economic support comes from international assistance. The government spends 1/3 of its budget on security and 1/3 on reconstruction, so there is not much left for other economic activities. He emphasized that the key for economic growth is that Afghanistan becomes self-reliant and the peace process will make it easier. He also added that Taliban has given a specific autonomy to its local commander, including how to find their own resources. Some are involved in narcotics, some in mining, and some others with taxing people. The peace in Doha simply means shutting the doors of their shops. He states that with the ongoing peace process, it means that some of the local commanders, once who were finding their own resources and creating problem for government forces, all will not be in control of Taliban anymore.
Naheed Sarabi said, “we should never give up on the achievements of the past 18 years. The government can win legitimacy and prevent fragmentation by creating strong bases at the community. We can propose plans at the Geneva Conference that would make Afghanistan self-reliant.” She added that the post-settlement situation of the country will be more complicated than the peace process itself. By involving the community, we need to address conflict and poverty to create social welfare that would eventually prevent fragmentation.
Ambassador Staffan de Mistura said, "the beginning of the peace negotiation this weekend is a historic moment and a wonderful opportunity. Everyone wants this conflict to end. Even neighbors are largely supportive of this process, so this is good news.” Amb. Staffan de Mistura added that the implementation and sustainability of the peace process will be essential. Human rights, particularly women rights, are like a thermometer for the sustainability of the peace process. He also added that the main problem is the lack of trust on all sides, that’s why the outcomes of the negotiation will be very important. One key aspect of this negotiation is the economy and this can have a substantial leverage for the peace process if it improves peoples’ lives.
Scott M. Weber concluded the session and stated that the dynamic of negotiation with Taliban is important and historic and it needs to cast in a wider set of challenges that Afghanistan is still facing. However, it is the beginning of the peace process; the proof of its effectiveness will be in the quality of the settlement on how the solutions that are found in short-term do not undermine the prospects for a sustainable peace in the long-term.
You can find the full research paper below:
https://aiss.af/aiss/publication_list_by_category/3