On March 5, 2020, the launch ceremony of the research “Islamic State Wilayat Khorasan: Phony Caliphate or Bona Fide Province?” was co-organized by the Afghan Institute for Strategic Studies (AISS) and Observer Research Foundation (ORF), in New Delhi, India.
The event was accompanied by a roundtable discussion with Amb. Amar Sinha, Distinguished Fellow at RIS and Former Indian Ambassador to Afghanistan, Dr. Arian Sharifi, Former Director General of National Threat Assessment at Afghan National Security Council, Hussain Ehsani, Researcher at the Afghan Institute for Strategic Studies, Indrani Bagchi, Diplomatic Editor at The Times of India, Kabir Taneja, Fellow at Observer Research Foundation, with moderation by Amb. Rakesh Sood, Distinguished Fellow at ORF.
At the beginning of the program, Mr. Ehsani gave a brief introduction of the research. He spoke the nature of “Islamic State of Khorasan Province”, its rise and its supporters in the region. Mr. Ehsani also spoke about the tactics of the insurgency and the objectives the group pursues in Afghanistan. He said that the group is not monolithic and it pursues the objectives of its supporter.
Dr. Arian Sharifi spoke about different categories of insurgencies in Afghanistan and region, and their “symbiotic” relationship. Dr. Sharifi briefly discussed the initial rise of ISKP in the northern Afghanistan which was under the command of a former “disgruntled” Taliban commander who changed flag, and the rise of ISKP in the eastern Nangarhar and Kunar, with the outpouring of Tahrik-e-Taliban Pakistan fighters and commanders in the two provinces. Dr. Sharifi also discussed the relationship between the Taliban and the ISKP and how the former helped the latter in the northern region of Afghanistan. Dr. Sharifi briefly discussed different operations the Afghan government undertook to eliminate the ISKP. He said that despite the damage the Afghan security and the international security forces have inflicted on the ISKP, the group has not only survived but also thrived and will become the next chapter of conflict in Afghanistan.
Amb. Amar Sinha spoke about the rise of the ISKP, which coincided with the Pakistani “Zarb-e-Azb” operation that pushed TTP and other Pakistani terrorist groups to the other side of Durand line in Afghanistan, and the establishment of the Taliban’s Doha office that was believed would lead to integration of the Taliban in political settlement. Amb. Sinha said that when the Taliban integrate, ISKP will be the next chapter, because “Islamic State is a big brand and Pakistan would easily refuse it has relationship with it”.
Ms. Indrani Bagchi, spoke about the correlation between the rise of ISKP and the Pakistani insurgent groups. Mr. Bagchi said that from the beginning, ISKP is seen as a Pakistani phenomenon and a Taliban change of flag. She said, “If any Pakistani group is taken out, they must be put under a new flag”.
At the end the speakers of the program engaged in Q&A discussed with the audience.
You can find the full research paper below:
https://aiss.af/…/aiss_…/Islamic_State_Wilayat_Khorasan_.pdf