On Thursday March 7, 2019, the Afghan Institute for Strategic Studies (AISS), launched its recent research paper titled “Political Settlement of the Afghanistan Conflict: Divergent Models”. This paper explores and analyses different possibilities of a political settlement in Afghanistan. Distinguished politicians, diplomats, academics, civil society members and media representatives attended the event.
First, AISS Researcher, Dr. Omar Sadr gave a brief overview of the main findings of the research. He stated, this paper explores and analyses different possibilities of a political settlement in Afghanistan. It particularly assesses the prospects of four different forms of political settlement: (i) inclusion of insurgents in the elections; (ii) decentralization of power; (iii) power sharing, and (iv) the interim government. He stated again that the prospects of a political settlement look, at best, challenging and perplexing. A military stalemate is a necessary but not a sufficient condition for a positive negotiated settlement. It is less likely that the insurgency agrees to a power sharing arrangement or inclusion in the elections if it is deeply immersed in radical ideology and perceives the stalemate in its favor. With less than five months left for the next round of presidential elections in Afghanistan, the government is also less likely to accept any settlement other than inclusion of insurgents in the elections. On the one hand, in a fragile context such as Afghanistan, elections do not necessarily lead to inclusive and stable settlement, on the other hand, the condition required for the interim government is not met yet. With the growing fear that a possible agreement with the Taliban may lead to a breakdown of order or loss of the recent democratic gains, it is important that the peace efforts should avoid any hast. Any form of political settlement should work as a tool both for democratization and statecraft. Lastly, role of the guarantors is crucial in possibility and impossibility of any of the settlement mechanisms.
The second speaker of the event was Mr. Jawed Ludin. He spoke about the Taliban's political vision and thinking. He said that we do not yet know the Taliban and what they want. He also added that the Taliban have changed over the past two decades, and a new generation of Taliban have emerged, noting that the changes are more negative. As an example, he said that the Taliban have become more extreme and radical. Mr. Ludin criticized the government and the peace process under the leadership of the government, saying that the government is a part of the regime, not the regime itself. The regime refers to the constitution and the institutions.
The third speaker, Mr. Azizullah Rafiee critiqued the book. He said complex dimensions of the conflict, including internal dimensions, such as, mafia economy, has been neglected in this research. He noted that there are six factions in the Taliban and each could become a challenge for any settlement or agreement with the Taliban.
Click on the link below to download the full report in Farsi and English: